Whatever the case, a wounded ISS will have been fairly rotten luck. Back in 2017, scientists from NASA and a Russian space contractor put the odds of this worst-case scenario at 1 in 121. As of late 2025, NASA told WIRED the risk of debris causing a depressurization event in any six-month period was somewhere between 1 in 36 and 1 in 170.
Discussing the project with just a few of the developers, it’s immediately clear how current work will inform future efforts.
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